How Stanley Cup playoff races are shaping up

The NHL standings are as tight as ever and it might be having an effect on the trade market. With so few teams decidedly out of the running, the list of sellers is still rather short. Teams are hoping that will become more defined in the coming weeks.

What do we make of the NHL standings today? Here's our pass through each of the divisions, how the playoff races are shaping up, and what things might look like using an alternative points system.

Central Division is a great case for changing the playoff setup

The Colorado Avalanche have been dominant this season, losing just six games in regulation. But four of those losses have come in their last 10 games, so this qualifies as a cold stretch for the team.

And yet they're still 11 points clear of second place in the Central Division and nine points clear of the second-place team in the league.

The Minnesota Wild are No. 2 in the Central, with a 13-5-5 record since making the bold trade for Quinn Hughes, fourth in the league over that time. They have a team-save percentage of .904 that ranks second in the league, with Filip Gustavsson going strong and Jesper Wallstedt making a case for the Calder Trophy.

The Dallas Stars are third in the Central with a plus-28 goal differential that's fourth-best in the league, the No. 2 power play and three players within the top 20 scorers in the NHL.

All three teams have cooled off recently (they each have just four wins in their past 10 games) but in the overall NHL picture, these teams still rank first, fifth and sixth. In the West, they are the top three teams. And yet, because of the playoff setup, one of these teams will see its season end in Round 1, and only one would have a chance to reach the conference final.

Last year, Dallas and Colorado met in the first round after they finished fifth and eighth, respectively, in the regular season. In 2024, the Jets and Avs were first-round opponents after finishing fourth and eighth in the regular season.

This division is screaming for a change in the playoff format, so we wondered, what would the current Round 1 series look like if we returned to a 1-vs-8 system:

Eastern Conference:
1. Tampa Bay vs 8. New York Islanders
2. Carolina vs. 7. Boston
3. Detroit vs. 6. Montreal
4. Buffalo vs. 5. Pittsburgh

Western Conference:
1. Colorado vs. 8. San Jose
2. Minnesota vs. 7. Utah
3. Dallas vs. 6. Anaheim
4. Vegas vs. 5. Edmonton
(If division winners still were given a top-two seed, the Golden Knights would jump to No. 2.)

How hot and cold streaks will wildly swing the Atlantic Division

At the moment, five Atlantic Division teams are in a playoff spot, with another being the first team out. Since Dec. 1, about 30 per cent of a full season, the Atlantic houses five of the NHL's top 10 teams by points percentage.

But with so much time still to go this season, we have to caution: It is so hard to climb back in from even what appears to be a manageable distance.

Take the Toronto Maple Leafs, for example.

On Dec. 1, the Leafs were coming off a stretch in which they had lost four times in five games, and they sat last in the Eastern Conference, with 25 points in 25 games. They were just six points out of a playoff berth.

Then, from Dec. 1 through Jan. 12, the Leafs got at least a point in 16 of 20 games and their 12-4-4 record in that span came to a .700 points percentage that ranked fourth in the league. It took them until the very last of those 20 games to climb back into a playoff spot.

Then, immediately after getting back into the wild card, Toronto has gone cold again, 1-4-2 in the past two weeks. And now the Leafs are back chasing again, six points out of a playoff spot and completing wiping out all the progress that was made in a month and a half.

The Buffalo Sabres and their fans know all about this. At the moment, the Sabres are one of the best stories going as the team tries to break its 14-year playoff drought. Third in the Atlantic with 63 points, this is the latest point in a season that Buffalo has been in a playoff spot since Feb. 24, 2023. So what happened in 2023?

After Feb. 24, those Sabres stumbled into a 3-8-2 run, and one month later, on March 24, they were six points out of the playoffs with 11 games left. Buffalo turned it on again, finishing 9-2-1 in those last 11 games and it still fell one point short of the post-season.

It's well established that the loser-point system makes it incredibly difficult to make up any sort of ground. A losing streak that lasts for even two weeks can become a season-ender at any point.

Of the toughest remaining schedules, six of the top 10 are Atlantic Division teams: Detroit (1), Ottawa (4), Montreal (5), Boston (6), Buffalo (7) and Tampa Bay (10). Toronto and Florida rank 21st and 22nd, respectively.

Who do we think can climb back in during the second half?

So, which team do we think has the best chance of climbing back in?

As noted above, the Florida Panthers have one of the easier remaining schedules at the moment and are four points out of a playoff spot with two games in hand of the Bruins ahead of them.

The back-to-back Stanley Cup champions have been hammered by injuries and figure to get those players back down the stretch. Even Aleksander Barkov has been seen on the ice and there is a non-zero chance he will factor into a playoff race.

But Sergei Bobrovsky is their x-factor. Perhaps because he's played so much hockey over the past three years, the 37-year-old has just an .875 save percentage and Florida, as a team, ranks 31st in the stat, ahead of only Ottawa. With an Olympic break on the horizon, can Bobrovsky come back fully charged and ready to lead a playoff push?

We should note that the Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks have the three easiest remaining schedules. Two of them are in a playoff spot today by way of the tie-breaker. It's entirely possible these three teams will be competing for two playoff spots in the final months.

Which team in a playoff spot are we skeptical of?

The San Jose Sharks are one of the most fun teams out there to watch and it would certainly be nice to see Macklin Celebrini and Co. in the post-season. But there are some red flags.

First, on the season at five-on-five, San Jose is at or right near the bottom in some key indicators such as Corsi percentage, expected goals percentage and even actual goals percentage.

Second, at minus-18, the Sharks have the worst goal differential of any team in a playoff spot. Both their penalty kill and power play also rank outside the top half of the league. Maybe it's a pinch too soon for this group, but certainly adding instead of selling at the deadline could change this outlook.

What a 3-2-1 point-system standings would look like

The way the loser point system is set up, teams are incentivized to not risk much near the end of regulation in a tie game, so that they ensure at least one point and take their shots in the extra frame or in the shootout.

But what if teams were incentivized to win in regulation?

That's the 3-2-1 points system: three points for a regulation win, two for a win in overtime or the shootout, and one for an extra time loss. What would today's standings look like if that were the format?

The biggest change you see in the Atlantic is that Montreal slides out of the top three. Boston remains tied with Buffalo in points, but the Panthers are much more in the game, as you'll see in a moment.

Nothing changes in the order atop the Metropolitan Division, though the Penguins get a little more space because of their OT wins.

The biggest change in the East in a 3-2-1 system is that the Canadiens fall out of the playoffs and the Panthers are in. There's also the visual that this race doesn't seem as close as our current one, which is part of the reason the NHL prefers its current system. Whereas there are four teams within six points of a playoff spot in today's Eastern Conference standings, only two would fall in that range in a 3-2-1 system.

You just can't let your eyes fool you. A three-point win can help make up a lot of ground fast.

Dallas moves back ahead Minnesota here, but the Central's top three are still all within the top six in the NHL.

Edmonton moves ahead of Vegas in this scenario, but has played three more games than the Golden Knights. The more notable change is that Anaheim slides under the first wild-card team (Utah) in a 3-2-1 system and has played one more game than the Mammoth.

The Mammoth take a big step forward here and in a 3-2-1 system are a much more solid playoff team. San Jose falls out for Seattle, which has played one more game. Interestingly, the wild-card race still looks as tight in the West here as it does using the current system.

The shootout has long lost its lustre and three-on-three overtimes can often (with exceptions!) become a slow, puck-possession game looking for the quick strike. Perhaps it's time to shake it up again bring more desperation to the ending of third periods.

"Three points for regulation wins. Yes, I like that better," Flames forward Blake Coleman said earlier this season.